Was it an intended or unintended consequence, one must wonder. [politics]

[rebeccmeister]

It is interesting to observe what's happening globally in response to the abrupt closure of a major global oil shipping channel. The impacts on fertilizer prices and ultimately food prices may wind up being pretty terrible. Of course, at the moment, most people are just thinking about prices paid at gas pumps, and are watching global markets fluctuate wildly depending on incoherent statements made by someone who might not have fully thought through the consequences of the decision to attack another country.

I appreciate the person who created a short video highlighting how much money gets incinerated every time military weapons are fired and/or military assets get destroyed, and contrasted that with the financial justifications used to gut public support programs in the U.S. over the past year and a half. Friends who help with domestic food aid efforts are reporting terrible increases in the numbers of people and families seeking help now.

But suddenly I know so much more about which countries are most heavily dependent on foreign oil imports. I don't know that anyone seeking to get people to decrease reliance on fossil fuels would have imagined this sort of scenario as a way to do that. People REALLY don't/can't do well with abrupt cutoffs.

Comments

Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

>> It is interesting to observe what's happening globally in response to the abrupt closure of a major global oil shipping channel. <<

I've been telling people since I was little that it's a bad idea to buy oil from people who hate you, because the supply could disappear at any time. Nobody listens.

>> The impacts on fertilizer prices and ultimately food prices may wind up being pretty terrible. <<

Commercial agriculture, being wholly dependent on chemical inputs and running with a hair-thin profit margin, is pretty screwed and probably needs a government bailout. Anyone with a garden or even a yard has other options. Even without a yard, people can seek out community gardens or farmer's markets.

>> the financial justifications used to gut public support programs in the U.S. over the past year and a half. <<

It's not just financial motivation. They hate poor people -- despite creating those themselves through other policy choices -- and wish they would die. The rich rarely realize that they can be rich only because of the poor. Without the poor to rob, there's no pyramid.

>> I don't know that anyone seeking to get people to decrease reliance on fossil fuels would have imagined this sort of scenario as a way to do that.<<

I certainly did. Historically, cutoffs have occurred with a variety of necessities. Some countries have responded by seeking alternative sources of the same thing, trying to make their own whatever, or switching to some less-vulnerable thing. Others try to claw their way back to the previous situation. And it's what happens any time you have a limited or dwindling supply -- eventually it runs out.

>> People REALLY don't/can't do well with abrupt cutoffs. <<

That's why some of us have been pestering people for years to switch to other energy options. Now they know why. But I'll bet you America makes the same poor choices it has mostly made in the past, and seeks other fossil fuel resources, instead of putting more effort into green energy -- or even diversifying agriculture. These are people too dumb to figure out that long supply lines are always a serious risk, even inside your own territory. Because what happens if you can't transport supplies, say because fuel costs go too high? Shit like this. It's obvious, but they love motor vehicles, so they don't consider the drawbacks.

Re: Thoughts

[rebeccmeister]

I think you're right, regarding the last point, unfortunately! (see also twoeleven's reply to this post). I still want to continue making personal changes to improve my own energy resilience, and will definitely keep on supporting regional food producers here.

Re: Thoughts

[ysabetwordsmith]

There's not a lot I can do about energy, and my gardening is limited, but I have started saving more seeds. This year I'm starting some seeds indoors, and I have more going outdoors. We'll see what happens. At least we have farmer's markets and Amish territory for shopping.

[twoeleven]

I don't know that anyone seeking to get people to decrease reliance on fossil fuels would have imagined this sort of scenario as a way to do that.

I'd just read something in the past few days that pointed out Russians cutting off natural gas to Europe a few years ago, and the hope that it would encourage more renewable energy in Europe. It didn't. So, the author wasn't hopeful for much now.

If the price of oil were to remain high, then'd we probably start to see people switch.

[rebeccmeister]

Ah, this is helpful perspective on what is likely to happen. Thank you for sharing this.

[mallorys_camera]

Mining the Strait of Hormuz is very, very bad since it will ensure the waterway is perilous for many years after the current conflict is history, thus keeping the costs of everything shipped using that waterway high.

This war is a totally pointless exercise. Sigh...